Get ready for Grocery price hikes as Hormuz closure threatens global food supply
The worldwide energy disruption triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely only the first wave of economic fallout tied to the conflict with Iran, with food prices expected to climb next and remain elevated even after fighting subsides.
The worldwide energy disruption triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely only the first wave of economic fallout tied to the conflict with Iran, with food prices expected to climb next and remain elevated even after fighting subsides.
That warning comes from research into how institutions shape supply chains and business operations. The same maritime chokepoint that handles about 20 percent of global crude oil trade and a comparable share of liquefied natural gas shipments also carries roughly one-third of the world’s traded fertilizer, a critical input for agriculture.
Modern farming relies on careful timing and sufficient quantities of nutrients. When fertilizer shipments are delayed or become too costly, farmers face difficult choices: apply less fertilizer, reduce the area they plant, or switch to crops that require fewer nutrients. Each of those decisions lowers productivity, shrinking supplies of staple foods, livestock feed, and ingredients used across the food industry.
The effects could reach consumers quickly. Rising corn prices, for example, would push up the cost of common foods and products. Corn-fed beef, fresh corn, and a wide range of packaged goods that rely on corn-based sweeteners could all become more expensive.
Three staple crops—corn, wheat, and rice—account for more than half of global calorie consumption. To achieve high yields, these crops depend on three key nutrients: nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium. Nitrogen promotes plant growth, phosphorus supports energy transfer and root development, and potassium helps regulate water use and improves protein content.
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has tightened supplies and driven up costs for all three nutrients.
Natural gas, which accounts for 70 to 90 percent of nitrogen fertilizer production costs, has been hit particularly hard. Production has dropped by about 20 percent during the conflict, while prices have surged as much as 70 percent.
At the same time, Russia has halted exports of ammonium nitrate, another important nitrogen source, in an effort to protect domestic supply.
China has taken similar steps with phosphate, suspending exports and removing about a quarter of global supply from international markets. Potash, the potassium component in fertilizers, was already constrained before the conflict due in part to sanctions affecting major producers Belarus and Russia.
As a result, fertilizer prices have jumped worldwide. In the United States, some fertilizers increased by more than 40 percent within a month of the war’s outbreak in late February 2026.
Analysts warn that these pressures will ripple through global food systems in the months ahead. As one expert noted, “Modern agriculture depends on precise timing of delivering nutrients to plants,” and disruptions at this scale can quickly translate into reduced output.
Another observed that farmers may be forced “to either reduce the amount they use, plant fewer crops or switch to crops that need less fertilizer,” all of which point to tighter food supplies.
The broader concern is that even after hostilities ease, the lag in agricultural production and supply chain recovery could keep food prices elevated for an extended period.
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